Land-Atmosphere Interactions Exacerbated the Drought and Heatwave over
Northern Europe during Summer 2018
Abstract
The 2018 drought and heatwave over Europe was exceptional over northern
Europe, with unprecedented forest fires in Sweden, searing heat in
Germany and water restrictions in England. Monthly, daily and hourly
data from ERA5, verified with soil moisture and surface flux
measurements over Britain, are examined to investigate the
subseasonal-to-seasonal progression of the event and the diurnal
evolution of tropospheric profiles to quantify the anomalous land
surface contribution to heat and drought. Data suggest the region
entered a rare condition of becoming a “hot spot” for land-atmosphere
coupling, which exacerbated the heatwave across much of northern Europe.
Land-atmosphere feedbacks were prompted by unusually low soil moisture
over wide areas, which generated moisture limitations on surface latent
heat fluxes, suppressing cloud formation, increasing surface net
radiation and driving temperatures higher during several multi-week
episodes of extreme heat. We find consistent evidence in field data and
reanalysis of a breakpoint threshold of soil moisture at most locations,
below which surface fluxes and daily maximum temperatures become
hypersensitive to declining soil moisture. Similar recent heatwaves over
various parts of Europe in 2003, 2010 and 2019, combined with dire
climate change projections, suggest such events could be on the
increase. Land-atmosphere feedbacks may play an increasingly important
role in exacerbating extremes, but could also contribute to their
predictability on subseasonal time scales.