Sub-seasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability over
the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and its Relationship to Mid-Latitude
Teleconnections
Abstract
This study assesses the sub-seasonal predictability of the weekly mean
geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa and its relationship to
teleconnections over the Northern Hemisphere in winter. The skill over
the North Pacific, Canada, and Greenland is higher than over other areas
for week-3 and -4 forecasts. These peaks correspond to the centers of
action for the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). PNA (NAO phase) predictions are better for
El Niño years at lead times of 4 weeks (2–4 weeks). The effects of La
Niña forcing on PNA and NAO forecasts are small compared with the El
Niño forcing. Numerical models tend to predict a negative PNA at lead
times of 3–4 weeks in La Niña years. The improvement in the
mid-latitude upper-level jet rather than in the atmospheric response to
ENSO forcing in the tropics is important for better S2S prediction.