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Comparison of Proxy and Multi-Model Ensemble Means on Volcanic Aerosols' Hydrological Effects in Asian Monsoon and Westerlies-dominated Subregions
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  • Zhihong Zhuo,
  • Chaochao Gao,
  • Ingo Kirchner,
  • Ulrich Cubasch
Zhihong Zhuo
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Chaochao Gao
Zhejiang University
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Ingo Kirchner
Free University of Berlin
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Ulrich Cubasch
Freie Universitaet Berlin
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Proxy-model comparisons show large discrepancies on volcanic aerosols’ hydrological effects in the Asian monsoon region (AMR). This was mostly imputed to uncertainties of the single model used in previous studies. Here, we compared two groups of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) with the tree-ring-based reconstruction Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA PDSI), to examine their reliability on reflecting hydrological effects of the volcanic eruptions in 1300-1850 CE. Time series plots indicate that MADA PDSI and MMEMs agree on the significant drying effects of volcanic perturbation over the monsoon-dominated subregion, while mismatches exist over the westerlies-dominated subregion. Comparisons on spatial patterns suggest that MADA PDSI and MMEMs agree better in one year after the volcanic eruption than in the eruption year, and in subregions with more available tree ring chronologies. MADA PDSI and CMIP5 MMEMs agree on the drying effect of volcanic eruptions in western-East Asia, South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Model results suggest significant wetting effect in southern EASM and western-South Asia, which agrees with the observed hydrological responses to 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption. Analysis on LME model simulations show similar hydrological responses. These results suggest that CMIP5 MMEM is able to reproduce volcanic eruptions’ hydrological effects in southern AMR.