Earthquake rupture through a step-over fault system: A case study of the
Leech River Fault, southern Vancouver Island
Abstract
The Leech River fault (LRF) zone located on the southern Vancouver
Island can be interpreted as an extensional step-over system based on
geological mapping and microseismicity relocation. It consists of two
sub-parallel right-lateral active fault structures: the primary NNE
dipping LRF structure to the north, and a secondary sub-vertical
structure to the south, possibly an extension of the Southern Whidbey
Island fault (SWIF). The possibility of an earthquake rupture nucleated
on the LRF jumping across the step-over and continuing propagation on
the SWIF has significant implications for seismic hazard of the
populated southern Vancouver area. To study earthquake rupture jumping
scenarios across the LRF system, we develop a finite-element model to
simulate dynamic ruptures governed by a linear slip-weakening frictional
law. The stress perturbations radiated from the LRF rupture will induce
an Over Stressed Zone (OSZ, where shear stress exceeds static frictional
strength) on the SWIF. With the increase of the OSZ size R_e, rupture
develops from stopping on LRF (no jumping), to breaking part of the SWIF
(self-arresting) or the entire SWIF (break-away). We demonstrate that
rupture jumping scenario is a collective result depending on a range of
parameters. Target parameters in our study include fault initial stress
level, step-over offset distance and fault burial depth. We find that
R_e and the receiver fault stress status are the keystone variables
directly controlling rupture jumping scenarios, while other parameters
exert their influence by resulting in different R_e.