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SERMeQ model produces a realistic upper bound on calving retreat for 155 Greenland outlet glaciers
  • Lizz Ultee,
  • Jeremy N. Bassis
Lizz Ultee
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jeremy N. Bassis
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
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The rate of land ice loss due to iceberg calving is a key source of variability among model projections of 21st century sea-level rise. It is especially challenging to account for mass loss due to iceberg calving in Greenland, where ice drains to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers, many smaller than typical model grid scale. Here, we apply a numerically efficient network flowline model (SERMeQ) forced by surface mass balance to simulate an upper bound on decadal calving retreat of 155 grounded outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet—resolving five times as many outlets as was previously possible. We show that the upper bound holds for 91\% of glaciers examined and that simulated changes in terminus position correlate with observed changes. SERMeQ can provide a physically consistent constraint on forward projections of the dynamic mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet associated with different climate projections.
16 Nov 2020Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 47 issue 21. 10.1029/2020GL090213