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Distribution of interseismic coupling along the North and East Anatolian Faults inferred from InSAR and GPS data
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  • Quentin Bletery,
  • Cavalié Olivier,
  • Jean Mathieu Nocquet,
  • Théa Ragon
Quentin Bletery
Université Côte d'Azur, IRD, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Geoazur, Université Côte d'Azur, IRD, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Geoazur, Université Côte d'Azur, IRD, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Geoazur

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Cavalié Olivier
Géoazur, Géoazur, Géoazur
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Jean Mathieu Nocquet
CNRS - Geoazur, CNRS - Geoazur, CNRS - Geoazur
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Théa Ragon
California Institute of Technology, California Institute of Technology, California Institute of Technology
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Abstract

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) has produced numerous major earthquakes. After decades of quiescence, the Mw 6.8 Elazig earthquake (January 24, 2020) has recently reminded us that the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) is also capable of producing significant earthquakes. To better estimate the seismic hazard associated with these two faults, we jointly invert Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and GPS data to image the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling along the eastern part of both the North and East Anatolian Faults. We perform the inversion in a Bayesian framework, enabling to estimate uncertainties on both long-term relative plate motion and coupling. We find that coupling is high and deep (0-20 km) on the NAF and heterogeneous and superficial (0-5 km) on the EAF. Our model predicts that the Elazig earthquake released between 200 and 250 years of accumulated moment, suggesting a bi-centennial recurrence time.
28 Aug 2020Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 47 issue 16. 10.1029/2020GL087775