Distribution of interseismic coupling along the North and East Anatolian
Faults inferred from InSAR and GPS data
The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) has produced numerous major earthquakes.
After decades of quiescence, the Mw 6.8 Elazig earthquake (January 24,
2020) has recently reminded us that the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) is
also capable of producing significant earthquakes. To better estimate
the seismic hazard associated with these two faults, we jointly invert
Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and GPS data to image
the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling along the eastern part
of both the North and East Anatolian Faults. We perform the inversion in
a Bayesian framework, enabling to estimate uncertainties on both
long-term relative plate motion and coupling. We find that coupling is
high and deep (0-20 km) on the NAF and heterogeneous and superficial
(0-5 km) on the EAF. Our model predicts that the Elazig earthquake
released between 200 and 250 years of accumulated moment, suggesting a
bi-centennial recurrence time.