Evidence of recurrent mass movement in front of the maximum slip area of
the 1960 Chile earthquake: Implications for risk assessment and
paleoseismology
Abstract
We present evidence that suggests a new risk scenario for the Valdivia
basin in south Chile, located in the area of the magnitude 9.5 1960
earthquake. In 1960, three mass movements, triggered by the earthquake
shaking, dammed the upper course of the San Pedro River and threatened
Valdivia City until it was opened in a controlled manner by its
inhabitants. Published historical accounts indicate that the 1575
earthquake, predecessor of the 1960 event, also triggered a mass
movement that dammed the upper course of the river. However, here we
reinterpret the published account and present new historical records,
which we combined with satellite imagery and field surveys to show that
the volume of the landslide in 1575 was smaller than the smallest of
those of 1960, yet its outburst flood killed thousands of natives
located downstream. Additionally, we characterized different mass
movement deposits in the upper course of the San Pedro River, including
both ancient and those formed in 1960, and we evaluated the mechanisms
that could contribute to their generation at present (e.g. land use).
Our results suggest that in the present-day conditions a
moderately-sized (Mw ~8) earthquake can be sufficient to
cause damming the San Pedro River, which challenges the previous
assumption that such phenomena are exclusively related to giant
1960-like earthquakes.