Comparison of atmospheric mass density models using a new data source:
COSMIC satellite ephemerides
Abstract
Atmospheric mass density (AMD) plays a vital role in the drag
calculation for space objects in low Earth orbit (LEO). Many empirical
AMD models have been developed and used for orbit prediction and efforts
continue to improve their accuracy in forecasting high-altitude
atmospheric conditions. Previous studies have assessed these models at
the height of 200 km to 600 km. A new empirical AMD model, dubbed as the
SERC model, was developed by accounting for ion contribution based on
the International Reference Ionosphere 2016 model, including many more
ions that are not accounted for in other AMD models. This new model has
been assessed in orbit prediction by using a new data source of COSMIC
satellite ephemerides at the height of 800 km, where the contribution of
ions in the total AMD is more significant. More specifically, two
periods of forty days were chosen in 2014–2015 and 2018–2019,
representing the solar maximum and minimum periods, respectively, to
assess the SERC model and four other state-of-the-art AMD models.
Thorough analyses were conducted to compare OP results using different
AMD models with precise reference ephemerides of COSMIC satellites and
based on various space weather indices. It is indicated that the SERC
model outperforms all other AMD models in terms of OP errors during the
solar maximum period and yields comparable OP results during the solar
minimum period.