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The Madden-Julian Oscillation affects crop yields around the world
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  • Weston Buckley Anderson,
  • Eunjin Han,
  • Walter Baethgen,
  • Lisa Goddard,
  • Angel G Muñoz,
  • Andrew W. Robertson
Weston Buckley Anderson
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Eunjin Han
Columbia University
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Walter Baethgen
Columbia University
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Lisa Goddard
Columbia University
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Angel G Muñoz
IRI
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Andrew W. Robertson
Columbia University
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Abstract

Understanding what causes weather-related stresses that lead to crop failures is a critical step towards stabilizing global food production. While there are many sources of weather-related stresses, the 30-60 day Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of subseasonal climate variability in the tropics, making it a potential – but as of yet unexplored – source of crop failures. Here crop models and observational yield statistics are used to assess whether the MJO affects maize yields. We find that the influence of the MJO is widespread, affecting crop yields throughout the tropics. In dry, hot environments the MJO can lead to crop failures by reducing precipitation, decreasing soil moisture, and increasing extreme heat, while in wetter, cooler environments - where water stress is less common - MJO-forced decreases in rainfall bring increases in solar radiation that benefits crop yields. These results provide a pathway to develop actionable early warnings using subseasonal forecasts.