Abstract
The frequency of major solar eruptions, and their space weather impacts
at earth vary with the cycle of solar activity but large amplitude
events can occur at any time. Each solar cycle has a distinct amplitude
and duration so that the solar cycle dependent frequency of rare,
extreme space weather events is challenging to quantify. By constructing
the analytic signal of daily sunspot numbers since 1818 we construct a
new solar cycle phase clock which maps each of the last 18 solar cycles
onto a single time-base. This clock orders solar coronal activity and
extremes of the aa index, which tracks geomagnetic storms at the earth’s
surface over the last 14 solar cycles. We identify and quantify the
occurrence times of a geomagnetically quiet solar cycle interval of
~4.4 years (~2 pi/5 phase or 40% of the
cycle) in extent centered on solar minimum within which only two severe
(aa>300nT) and one extreme (aa>500nT)
geomagnetic storms occurred since 1868. The solar cycle modulation of
activity is such that 1-3% of severe (aa>300nT)
geomagnetic storms and 4-6% of C, M and X class solar flares occurred
in the solar cycle quiet phase. Terminators of solar EUV bright point
activity indicate the end of this quiet interval and the ‘switch on’ of
increased frequency of solar flares and geomagnetic storms. This
provides quantitative support to planning resilience against space
weather impacts since only a few percent of all severe storms occur in
this quiet interval and its start and end are forecast-able.