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Modulation of Mid-Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfalls by the MJO
  • Julia Manganello,
  • James L Kinter III
Julia Manganello
George Mason University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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James L Kinter III
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Professor, Climate Dynamics Dept. of Atmospheric, Oceanic & Earth Sciences, George Mason University
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In this study, we investigate the relationship between mid-Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). This is done by using a high-atmoshperic-resolution ensemble prediction system based on the ECMWF operational model (Project Minerva) to compile the statistics of these rare events, and the velocity potential MJO (VPM) index to define the phase and amplitude of the MJO. We find that these TC landfalls are most likely to occur during VPM phases 1-3. At shorter lead times, phase 1 is strongly favored, with some contribution of phase 3. At longer lead times (between the 6- and 12-day leads), phases 1 and 2 consistently show significant TC landfall frequencies. This result suggests a potential for extended-range predictions of the mid-Atlantic TC landfall risk based on the phase of the MJO.