Application of CEEMDAN in Analyzing Cosmic Ray Properties before Great
The short-term disturbance of galactic cosmic rays(GCRs) caused by
coronal cass ejections (CMEs) can be quantified to indicators of
geomagnetic storms. We proposed a model takes GCRs time series slice as
input and generates two geomagnetic storm prediction indexes as output.
This new model is based on Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT), utilizing
Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise
(CEEMDAN) instead of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), and extends 2D
spectrum result of HHT to 3D form.Two prediction indexes is constructed
from the sensitive components in GCRs. Finally, this model is tested on
11 great geomagnetic storms(Kp>=8) during solar cycle 23
and 24. Accuracy of this model turned out to be 82%, and prediction
lead time ranges from 9 to 24 hours.