Abstract
Accurate knowledge of the dependence of anthropogenic atmospheric CO2,
the excess over preindustrial, on future emissions is essential to
developing approaches to limit climate change. At present, the lifetime
of excess CO2, as represented in current carbon cycle models, is
uncertain by more than an order of magnitude, 70 to more than 700 years
(Schwartz, JGR, 2018). Consequently observation-based top-down analysis
provides an important alternative approach. The turnover time of excess
CO2 (ratio of stock in the atmosphere and the mixed-layer ocean, which
are in near equilibrium, to the net leaving flux into the terrestrial
biosphere and deep ocean) is determined as 54 ± 10 years. A simple model
for excess CO2, consisting of four compartments with three
observationally determined global-mean parameters (deposition velocity
of CO2 to the surface ocean, piston velocity describing the rate of
exchange of water between the mixed-layer and deep ocean, and the
transfer coefficient of CO2 kat from the atmosphere a to the terrestrial
biosphere t), and one uncertain adjustable parameter kta, accurately
reproduces CO2 mixing ratio over the Anthropocene. This model yields the
adjustment time (inverse of fractional removal rate in the absence of
emissions) as 65 ± 10 years over the first 100 years, depending on kta,
over which time excess CO2 would decrease by 65 to 81%, depending on
kta, Figure 1. The reduction of global emissions required to stabilize
atmospheric CO2 over this time scale is 50 to 60%.