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Impact of satellite observations on forecasting sudden stratospheric warmings
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  • Shunsuke Noguchi,
  • Yuhji Kuroda,
  • Hitoshi Mukougawa,
  • Ryo Mizuta,
  • Chiaki Kobayashi
Shunsuke Noguchi
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Yuhji Kuroda
Meteorological College, Japan Meteorological Agency
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Hitoshi Mukougawa
Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University
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Ryo Mizuta
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
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Chiaki Kobayashi
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
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The observational impacts of satellite data assimilation on extended-range forecasts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are investigated by conducting ensemble reforecast experiments. We use two Japanese novel reanalysis products: the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) and its subset that assimilates conventional observations only (JRA-55C). A comparative examination on the reproducibility for SSWs between the two ensemble forecasts reveals that the impact of satellite observations is significant for forecasts starting 5 days before the SSW onset, with 20% less accuracy in the JRA-55C forecasts. Moreover, some of forecasts of vortex-splitting SSWs show a sudden appearance of deep difference, which lasts over a few months in the lower stratosphere and significantly affects the surface climate. These results highlight an important role of mesospheric and upper stratospheric circulations on the onset and development of SSWs.
16 Mar 2020Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 47 issue 5. 10.1029/2019GL086233