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Drought monitoring and forecasting for Lower Mekong Countries via the Regional Hydrological Extremes Assimilation System (RHEAS)
  • +6
  • Farrukh Chishtie,
  • Susantha Jayasinghe,
  • Kostas Andreadis,
  • Amor Ines,
  • Kel Markert,
  • Eric Anderson,
  • Amanda Weigel,
  • David Saah,
  • Peeranan Towashiraporn
Farrukh Chishtie
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Susantha Jayasinghe
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
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Kostas Andreadis
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
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Amor Ines
Michigan State University
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Kel Markert
University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA-SERVIR
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Eric Anderson
University of Alabama in Huntsville
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Amanda Weigel
University of Alabama in Huntsville
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David Saah
University of San Francisco
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Peeranan Towashiraporn
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
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Abstract

The Lower Mekong is facing an increasing impact of droughts and at the regional level, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) is mandated to work with government agencies on creating and distributing flood, drought, water resource governance and use to improve policy and practice. The MRC is striving to provide regional, locally calibrated and downscaled information on drought forecasts and real-time monitoring through a portal. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS) is built on regionally and locally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. This model is co-developed by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the SERVIR-Mekong teams. In this work, we outline how the MRC Drought Team’s requirements were met via RHEAS. Driven with earth observation data, the main aim of this service is to improve present regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting services to Lower Mekong countries for their water allocation and drought mitigation information needs. We provide an overview of the model calibration and validation methodology, and we find reasonable reliability of the soil moisture model results with the satellite based observations from the SMAP and SMOS retrievals. Through this support to MRC in integrating new drought assessment, monitoring and warning methodologies using RHEAS, more data and analyses will be available to support them to develop improved advice on drought early warning to the National Mekong Committees across the Mekong countries. MRC’s assistance is envisaged to enable comprehensive, accurate and useful warnings for the decision-makers at local and provincial level to take effective action. Ultimately this service is expected to assist farmers to make preemptive decisions about their water use, cropping and planting patterns and market decisions which should reduce crop loss and support livelihoods from farming, including from appropriate compensation to farmers from the governments, wherever this is in effect.